And what exactly happens when you try to renew? Luck doesn't play a role in renewal.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
To renew, sign in with your subscription LiveID and password at http://billing.microsoft.com and select the renew link for the OneCare subscription shown. Once you have provided payment information or a retail PIN/key, your subscription will be renewed and it may take 24 hours or more for your revised subscription status to appear in OneCare.
-steve