(The following is a "boilerplate" response - I know you already did the 2nd and 3rd item in the bulleted list)
Renewal takes effect on the date that your current subscription expires and that it can take up to 24 hours for the subscription status to be updated in OneCare if you are renewing within 30 days of expiration and 5 days if renewal was performed between 90 and 30 days before expiration.
You can try the following:
- Check your PC date and time.
- Check your subscription status by logging in with your subscription LiveID at http://billing.microsoft.com
- Confirm that this is the same LiveID shown to be the Subscription ID in OneCare - Help/About…
- Open OneCare and click "Check for Updates" to have OneCare check for updated credentials
If your subscription is correctly shown at the Billing site, but incorrect in OneCare and your PC date and time are correct, please contact support.
How to reach support (FAQ) - http://forums.microsoft.com/WindowsOneCare/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=2421771&SiteID=2
-steve